MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE · LISTED EXPOSURE · PRIMARY SOURCES

Prediction Market
Industry Monitor.

Who operates the markets? Who provides access, capital or infrastructure? And when does a theme become an observable capital-markets segment?

10 providers 8 Public Companies 1 Dedicated ETF 6 Primary-source signals

01 / PROVIDER REGISTRY

A trading venue is not the same as a platform.

Active, virtual and historical providers are distinguished by market model, access and regulatory nature—not by their chosen brand description.

10 entries

Provider Type & model Access & regulation Assessment

Active Kalshi

Regulated trading venue Order book · Event Contracts

USA · eligibility-based CFTC · DCM

Private company; events spanning politics, economics, sport and culture.

Source / profile

Active Polymarket

Crypto-native market Order book · blockchain

Jurisdiction-dependent US re-entry through regulated infrastructure

Globally visible market-implied probabilities; the platform remains privately held.

Source / profile

Active ForecastEx

Regulated trading venue Complementary YES/NO contracts

Via Interactive Brokers CFTC · DCM & DCO

Economic, climate and political Forecast Contracts integrated with broker infrastructure.

Source / profile

Active CME Group Event Contracts

Exchange infrastructure Event Futures

Via brokers CFTC-regulated environment

Event-based contracts within established futures infrastructure.

Source / profile

Active Robinhood Prediction Markets

Distribution Hub Integrated retail access

USA · product-dependent Partner-/venue-dependent

Prediction markets as a product area within a multi-asset platform.

Source / profile

Active / special model PredictIt

Political prediction market Central marketplace

USA · limited Historical academic framework

Politics-focused markets; regulatory status must be tracked separately.

Source / profile

Active Metaculus

Forecasting Community Aggregated forecasts

Global Not a conventional real-money market

Research and community forecasts rather than tradable Event Contracts.

Source / profile

Active Manifold

Virtual market Play money / community

Global Virtual environment

Low access threshold; suitable for studying market mechanics.

Source / profile

Historical TradeSports / Intrade

Event Future Exchange Peer-to-peer · order book

Discontinued Historical regulatory case

A key reference for political and economic Event Contracts and market microstructure.

Source / profile

Historical Redmonitor

Regulated trading platform Binary financial contracts

Discontinued Austrian supervision

An important European precedent for tradable information and binary derivatives.

Source / profile

02 / PUBLIC MARKET EXPOSURE

Observable companies.
Different forms of exposure.

Inclusion in a thematic fund does not make a company a prediction-market provider. The grid therefore separates direct operating activity, strategic investment and mere ecosystem proximity.

Direct Strategic Ecosystem / adjacent

01 Nasdaq

PDC

Perpetuals.com

Direct

Prediction/trading products UpsideOnly and announced market infrastructure

Primary source

02 Nasdaq

IBKR

Interactive Brokers

Direct

Venue Owner & Distribution ForecastEx, with access to Kalshi and CME

Primary source

03 Nasdaq

HOOD

Robinhood Markets

Direct

Retail Distribution Prediction markets as a distinct product and revenue category

Primary source

04 NYSE

ICE

Intercontinental Exchange

Strategic

Investor & Data Distribution Equity investment in Polymarket and institutional data distribution

Primary source

05 Nasdaq

CME

CME Group

Direct

Exchange Infrastructure Event Contracts within regulated derivatives infrastructure

Primary source

06 Nasdaq

COIN

Coinbase Global

Ecosystem

Crypto & Market Infrastructure Thematic proximity; verify operational prediction-market exposure separately

Primary source

07 Nasdaq / TSX

GLXY

Galaxy Digital

Ecosystem

Digital-asset infrastructure Indirect category exposure; not a pure-play prediction-market stock

Primary source

08 LSE

IGG

IG Group Holdings

Adjacent

Trading Distribution Multi-asset and derivatives access; monitor specific Event Contract integration

Primary source

03 / ETF & FUND MONITOR

From niche theme to investable basket.

The first dedicated ETF signals packaging activity and capital-markets interest. It is neither an industry index nor a direct investment in Event Contracts.

DICE CBOE BZX

TEMA TRADING & PREDICTION MARKETS ETF

Platforms powering new markets.

LAUNCHED
8 September 2026

TOTAL EXPENSE RATIO 0.75%

HOLDINGS 39

KALSHI SPV 7.23%

POLYMARKET SPV 7.22%

FINANCIALS 78.77%

TOP HOLDINGS · 21 September 2026

Kalshi SPV7.23%

Polymarket SPV7.22%

Coinbase5.19%

Robinhood4.89%

Interactive Brokers4.74%

Securitize4.70%

Galaxy Digital4.64%

ICE4.49%

Circle4.40%

IG Group3.38%

Not an Event Contract portfolio

DICE invests in companies, platforms and infrastructure—not in individual Event Contracts.

SPV valuation

Private positions are not continuously valued on a liquid exchange. Transaction prices provide the valuation anchors.

Breadth of theme

A large share of the fund consists of financial infrastructure. Its exposure is broader than the prediction-market segment alone.

Current holdings from the issuer

COVERAGE LOGIC

A theme becomes an industry
when its infrastructure becomes observable.

Providers reveal market supply. Publicly listed companies reveal capital and distribution. ETFs reveal packaging. Filings provide the verifiable signals.

swarmalpha Theme Tracker

Prediction Market Industry Monitor.

A trading venue is not the same as a platform.

Observable companies.Different forms of exposure.

Perpetuals.com

Interactive Brokers

Robinhood Markets

Intercontinental Exchange

CME Group

Coinbase Global

Galaxy Digital

IG Group Holdings

From niche theme to investable basket.

Platforms powering new markets.

Not an Event Contract portfolio

SPV valuation

Breadth of theme

What companies disclose—not what the market says.

A theme becomes an industry when its infrastructure becomes observable.

Prediction Market
Industry Monitor.

Observable companies.
Different forms of exposure.

A theme becomes an industry
when its infrastructure becomes observable.