FIRST · YOUR VIEW
You see grey clouds. Do you expect rain?
You want to go outside later. The sky is grey and you think: it might rain today.
SWARMALPHA · MADE SIMPLE
Prediction markets: In a nutshell
How expectations become tradable. Made simple.
We make decisions before we know what will happen. What if we could trade on our different expectations?
Explore, step by step, how a view of the future can become a tradable contract – and why this idea is attracting fresh attention.
01 / FROM EVERYDAY LIFE TO A SHARED QUESTION
The same future. A different meaning.
For you, rain might mean a wet journey home. For a farmer, it could save the harvest. What we expect also depends on where we stand – and what is at stake for us. Seven examples show how a possible event becomes a personal judgement.
Choose a topic and follow the example through five steps.
SECOND · YOUR DECISION
Pack an umbrella – or trust that it will stay dry?
You weigh it up: do you take an umbrella just in case, or leave it at home?
THIRD · OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Your weather app says rain. Do you trust it?
You check the weather forecast. It gives you another view of whether and when it might rain where you are.
FOURTH · THE BIGGER PICTURE
A shower for you could save a farmer’s harvest.
You might be wondering whether to take an umbrella. For a farmer, whether it rains – and how much – can affect the harvest. The same forecast can have very different consequences.
FIFTH · THE EVENT
The harvest needs rain. How could the risk be managed?
For a farmer, a long dry spell can pose a financial risk. Commodity exchanges offer ways to manage price fluctuations. Weather contracts have also been developed to help manage the effects of certain weather conditions.
Can a forecast help you prepare for a risk?
An event contract could help prepare for some of the effects of a dry spell. How well it does so depends on its terms and costs.
FIRST · YOUR VIEW
Who do you think will win the election?
The news is full of discussion about the coming election. You follow the debate and have a sense of which party might come first.
SECOND · YOUR DECISION
What shapes your own view of the election?
You read party programmes and follow the news. What convinces you, and what makes you sceptical? You might expect a party to win without wanting to vote for it yourself.
THIRD · OTHER PERSPECTIVES
What do people around you think – and how do they influence you?
Your friends barely mention one party, while your family sees it as the favourite. Whose voices shape your impression? Do you also hear what people outside your circle think?
FOURTH · MANY OPINIONS
What do polls tell us – and later, election-night projections?
Before the election, polls offer clues about how people intend to vote. After voting closes, projections use votes already counted to estimate how the election might turn out.
FIFTH · THE EVENT
You have made your prediction. What does the result say?
On a prediction market, people could trade their expectations about a specific outcome: will Party A receive the most votes in this election?
What could your feel for elections bring to the table?
A prediction market offers a way to share your view of an event and compare it with other perspectives. If you put money in, you can lose it.
FIRST · YOUR VIEW
Your team is playing. Is that the fan talking – or the expert?
You know the recent results and injury news, and you believe in your team. How much of that confidence comes from experience – and how much from wanting your side to win?
SECOND · YOUR DECISION
You expect a win. How does that shape your match night?
You arrange to watch the match with friends. Maybe you are excited. Or perhaps you are cautious because an important player is missing.
THIRD · OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Your friend disagrees. What do they see differently?
A friend thinks the opposition is stronger, pointing to recent games. You point to your team’s home record. Which argument convinces you? Would you accept it if it went against your favourite?
FOURTH · MANY OPINIONS
Your gut says win. What do the betting odds say?
You check a bookmaker’s odds. Your team is rated less highly than you expected. Could that reflect something you have not considered?
FIFTH · THE EVENT
The final whistle blows. Did your assessment hold up?
On a prediction market, people can trade their views about an event. For example: will your team win this match in regular time? Some expect a win; others do not.
What could your football knowledge bring to the table?
A prediction market offers a way to share your view of an event and compare it with other perspectives. If you put money in, you can lose it.
FIRST · YOUR VIEW
Bullish or bearish? What shapes your view of the markets?
Political news, economic data and the mood on the exchanges: you piece the clues together. Do you expect markets to keep rising – or do you see clouds on the horizon?
SECOND · YOUR DECISION
Take profits, hedge or stay invested?
You might take profits, protect your portfolio, wait and see, or take a position based on rising or falling prices.
THIRD · OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Everyone is talking about a rally. Have you missed something?
People you know feel optimistic, while a market analysis warns of risks. Who do you listen to? Do you examine opposing arguments as closely as those that confirm your view? The same research news can mean different things: a family thinks about a possible treatment, while investors also consider a company’s future.
FOURTH · MANY OPINIONS
You have a view. How does the market respond?
A study is delayed or economic data remain unclear. Some investors become cautious; others see opportunities. Whether prices rise or fall also depends on prior expectations. Even good news can disappoint if expectations were higher.
FIFTH · THE EVENT
You expect markets to rise. By when – and how will you measure it?
On a prediction market, people could trade a specific development: will a specified stock index be above a certain level at the end of the year?
How could you use your financial market experience here?
A prediction market offers a way to share your view of an event and compare it with other perspectives. If you put money in, you can lose it.
FIRST · YOUR VIEW
You love the trailer. Will the film be a box-office hit?
The trailer catches your eye. Perhaps you like the story or the cast. You think: this could be a hit with audiences.
SECOND · YOUR DECISION
Opening night or wait and see? How much does excitement sway you?
You make plans to see it on opening night or decide to wait for the first reactions. Your expectation shapes what you look forward to.
THIRD · OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Your friends are sceptical. Does that change your view of the film?
You love the trailer and cast. A friend thinks both are overrated, while a critic praises the film. Whose opinion carries more weight for you – and why?
FOURTH · MANY OPINIONS
Everyone is talking about it. Will they buy tickets too?
Conversations, reviews and advance ticket sales paint different pictures. Clicks may show curiosity; tickets sold offer a different clue. Which suggests a box-office hit?
FIFTH · THE EVENT
A full cinema is a start. When does the film count as a success?
On a prediction market, people could trade a specific development: will this film reach a certain box-office total by a specified date?
What could your instinct for films bring to the table?
A prediction market offers a way to share your view of an event and compare it with other perspectives. If you put money in, you can lose it.
FIRST · YOUR VIEW
Suddenly, a research headline feels deeply personal.
Imagine someone close to you is diagnosed with a rare condition for which there is no approved treatment yet. You read about a drug candidate being studied.
SECOND · YOUR DECISION
A possible breakthrough. How much hope do you place in it?
An article describes promising results. You want to understand: is this an early experiment, a larger trial or already an application for approval?
THIRD · OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Who helps you make sense of hope and unanswered questions?
The treating doctors, researchers and a patient organisation bring different experiences. What is already known? Where is the evidence strong, and what remains open?
FOURTH · THE BIGGER PICTURE
A milestone for researchers. A question of time for your family.
Whether a treatment might become available soon or much later matters deeply to those affected. Researchers focus on trial results; companies also consider the next stages of development.
FIFTH · THE EVENT
What needs to happen before hope becomes an available treatment?
Different assessments could reveal which studies or decisions are still needed and what might change a timeline. Evidence and speculation would need to be clearly separated.
What knowledge would help you make sense of hope and unanswered questions?
What information is missing, and who could help explain it? This is about understanding and sharing knowledge, without financial stakes or promises of a cure.
FIRST · YOUR VIEW
Will what you learn today still be needed tomorrow?
You are considering an apprenticeship, a degree or further training. At the same time, you read about what AI can already do. Which skills will carry you through the years ahead?
SECOND · YOUR DECISION
Keep learning – but in which direction?
You compare options: deepen technical skills, learn to work with AI or focus on tasks where experience and human interaction matter? Your time and money are limited.
THIRD · OTHER PERSPECTIVES
What do people already experiencing the change see?
Employees describe changing tasks. Businesses seek new skills. Teachers ask what they should teach. Do these experiences match the picture painted by headlines and training providers?
FOURTH · THE BIGGER PICTURE
Your career choice is personal. The change reaches entire industries.
Companies might reshape their operations and universities their courses. Where staff are scarce or many workers retire, AI could have a different effect from places where jobs are under pressure.
FIFTH · THE EVENT
What knowledge helps education adapt in time?
Experiences from workplaces, universities and professional associations could offer earlier clues about changing needs. A specific question might be: which tasks in a particular industry will be performed with AI more often over the next three years?
What would you like to learn today to have more options tomorrow?
Which experiences from your work or learning could help others? And which perspectives would help you weigh your own next step?
An everyday question leads to an idea that people have explored and developed in different ways. Let’s look back.
02 / TRACES OF A DEVELOPMENT
Past. Present. Future.
LOOKING AHEAD
People have always wondered what the future holds. Their ideas about it run through religion, politics and science – and shape the technologies they choose to pursue.
WHAT CONNECTS US
Shared perspectives connect people in societies, communities, fan groups, political parties and organisations. Together with shared values, they form a world view. It influences how people interpret information, make decisions and act.
OUR JOURNEY THROUGH TIME
Our journey through time begins in the middle of the 20th century. From asking how good a forecast was, it leads to the wisdom of many and to marketplaces that bring different expectations together. Four stops make this slice of the development tangible.
1950
How good was the forecast?
Glenn Brier introduces a way to compare probability forecasts with what actually happens.
Explore this stop
The Brier score comes from weather forecasting. It is a foundation for evaluating forecasts – not an early prediction market or evidence of a direct product lineage.
Brier · Monthly Weather Review ↗1988
A market as an experiment.
The University of Iowa begins an election market to study how prices can reflect expectations.
Explore this stop
The Iowa Presidential Stock Market is an academic experiment. The university traces its origins to the 1988 US presidential election.
University of Iowa · Background ↗What can we know together?
Each of us sees only part of the picture. What happens when many people bring their different experiences and perspectives together? In The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki brings this idea to a wider audience.
Explore this stop
A group’s judgement is not automatically right. Diverse perspectives and independent views can help. But when everyone follows the same opinion, many people can be wrong together.
University of California, Berkeley · Book record ↗2004
New marketplaces emerge.
Around 2004, different ways to trade expectations take shape. Platforms such as TradeSports bring buyers and sellers together, while the CFTC designates HedgeStreet as a trading venue in the US.
Explore this stop
The CFTC records the designation on 18 February 2004. HedgeStreet later became Nadex. This is one strand of development, not the origin of every market form.
CFTC · Designation ↗ · NBER · TradeSports 2004 ↗2026
03 / AN IDEA IN MOTION
Hype or evolution?
An old idea is reaching new people. Trading volumes are growing, capital is flowing in, and new providers are entering the market. But growth alone cannot answer the key question: is this a passing craze, or the next step in a longer development?
Three chapters take you from visible growth to what might be changing beneath it. Choose a starting point or follow them in order.
CHAPTER 1 / 3
Why is it attracting so much attention?
New access, policy decisions and interest from more providers are adding momentum. Technology and existing markets are coming together in new ways.
The direction is being set.
The US is playing a leading role in the development of prediction markets. Politics and regulators influence which products emerge and how people can access them. Trading volume is growing, companies are attracting capital, and more providers are taking an interest.
European regulators have taken a more cautious approach, pointing to existing product intervention measures. Whether those measures apply depends on how each contract is classified.
Crypto exchanges enter the picture.
Crypto exchanges are expanding their offerings: alongside cryptocurrencies and derivatives, prediction markets are finding a place too. Partnerships create new ways to access them, while new products are being combined with blockchain technology.
New technologies, existing users and different market models are coming together. Whether they give rise to lasting offerings remains to be seen.
New possibilities, new conflicts.
Supporters see new ways to make expectations visible and address risks. Others ask whether some products resemble existing forms of betting – and whether rules, competition and protections are comparable.
In the US, platforms and state authorities are already disputing jurisdiction. The outcome remains open.
The momentum raises interest. The numbers help put its scale into perspective.
CHAPTER 2 / 3
What do the numbers actually tell us?
Trading, user interest and capital show different sides of the development. These figures are dated snapshots, not a live market overview.
$26 → $53bn
Per month
Pew Research: combined global trading volume for Kalshi and Polymarket, including Polymarket US.
What does this number mean?
Based on Pew's analysis of The Block data. Trading volume is not company revenue, profit or customer deposits. Different measurement methods can make comparisons difficult.
Pew Research · 23 Sep 2026 ↗~3 million
Users during the tournament
Reuters reported the number of Kalshi users during the football World Cup, citing a person familiar with the matter.
What does this number mean?
The figure relates to one tournament and one platform. It does not show the total number of consistently active customers or an independently verified growth rate.
Reuters · 23 Jul 2026 ↗$1 billion
Funding round
Kalshi announced a one-billion-dollar funding round at a reported valuation of $22 billion.
What does this number mean?
This is a company statement about one funding round – not a measure of trading volume, revenue or profit.
Kalshi · 7 May 2026 ↗The three figures cover different periods and data sources. They do not provide a complete comparison of consistently active customers or company revenues.
The numbers show the scale. Whether there is more to the story than growth is the next question.
CHAPTER 3 / 3
Is more being traded – or is something new taking shape?
A growing market is not in itself proof of fundamental change. What also matters is whether products, access and the way participants work together change for the long term.
Passing craze or lasting change?
New offerings attract attention. But high trading volumes alone do not tell us whether interest will last or a sustainable market will develop.
Much will depend on whether people use these products beyond individual major events – and whether access, trust and clear rules take hold over time.
TECHNOLOGY
New access
Digital platforms connect people and markets in new ways.
PRODUCTS
New forms
What a product is about, how it works and what it pays out can all make a difference.
ORGANISATION
New roles
Who runs the market? Who helps make trading possible? And who keeps watch?
REGULATION
New questions
Which existing rules fit – and where is more clarity needed?
A market meets established interests.
As platforms and event-based products grow, the landscape changes for many participants. Industry associations and advocacy groups will ask which rules should apply to everyone. Established providers, including bookmakers, may see new competition. Financial and gambling regulators will assess the offerings through their respective responsibilities and protection mandates.
Whether these interests can be brought together under common rules or lead to a longer contest remains open. We may be at the beginning of a development whose direction is still to be determined.
Whether this becomes lasting change also depends on how people, businesses and regulators respond. Let’s explore their different perspectives.
Explore the perspectives04 / DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES
One development. Different perspectives.
What looks like a new possibility to one person raises questions for another. People, businesses and regulators look at the same products from different perspectives.
Choose a perspective to explore what matters from that point of view.
What could it offer me?
Perhaps you know a subject well. Perhaps you want to understand what others expect – or prepare for something that might happen.
- What opportunity does this create?
- Your experience may find a new use. Different views can be compared; depending on the product, managing a specific risk may also play a part.
- What questions remain open?
- Do I understand the product? How is its price formed? What could I lose if I put money in? Confidence in your own view does not guarantee a profit.
- What matters most?
- Clear rules, verifiable outcomes and an understanding of costs and risks. These help you judge whether an offering fits your situation.
What possibilities are emerging?
New technology and ways to reach people can turn an idea into a usable service. Platforms also need to work out how to run a reliable market.
- What opportunity does this create?
- New products, partnerships and technical solutions can connect people with different expectations. New business models may emerge.
- What questions remain open?
- Will there be lasting interest and enough trading activity? How are outcomes determined and disputes resolved? How can abuse and manipulation be made harder?
- What matters most?
- A sustainable operation, clear responsibilities and an understandable product. Trust also depends on how a provider handles errors, complaints and difficult cases.
What changes for us?
For bookmakers, exchanges and other established businesses, a new platform can be both a competitor and a potential partner. The products do not necessarily serve the same purpose.
- What opportunity does this create?
- New partnerships, distribution channels and product ideas. Existing expertise can help shape useful new offerings.
- What questions remain open?
- Where do products and audiences overlap? Which rules apply to each provider? Which differences are justified, and where might competition become uneven?
- What matters most?
- Compare how the products actually work. Similar interfaces or events do not automatically mean the same risks, products or obligations.
What rules are needed?
New offerings raise questions beyond individual users or companies: what effects could they have, who is responsible, and how can trust be protected?
- What opportunity does this create?
- A clear framework can provide guidance and support responsible development. It can also make the trade-offs between different interests easier to understand.
- What questions remain open?
- How should the products be classified? Who has oversight? How can users, sensitive information and the integrity of the underlying events be protected?
- What matters most?
- Effective protection, fair market conditions and clear responsibilities. Assessment should focus on how a product actually works and its possible effects.
These different perspectives lead to different expectations. You can explore what that means in practice in the next step – using possible European rules for event contracts as an example.
05 / OPINION MINER · A VIRTUAL THOUGHT EXPERIMENT
How do you see the future?
You have explored the development and different perspectives. Now it is your turn: which ideas do you find convincing, and what do you expect to happen?
THE CENTRAL QUESTION
Will the EU have a dedicated framework for event contracts by the end of 2027?
STEP 1 / 4
An open development. A specific event.
Many interests come together here. Our simulation focuses on one specific development: will a dedicated EU framework expressly addressing event contracts emerge by 31 December 2027?
- The deadline
- The development must have happened by 31 December 2027.
- The test
- A final EU legal or supervisory instrument has been officially published and expressly creates specific rules for event contracts.
- What does not qualify
- Discussion, a draft or rules in just one member state do not meet that test on their own.
Yes does not mean every product will be permitted. A new framework could allow, restrict or prohibit offerings. The question is simply whether the defined event happens.
STEP 2 / 4
What supports a yes – and what supports a no?
Sometimes we find arguments on both sides convincing. Choose the ideas that matter to you. These are possible views, not established facts. You can also continue without choosing any.
What needs to be clarified?
Whatever you expect to happen, there are practical questions to consider. They help connect the different interests.
- Access & protection
- Who can take part? How clearly should costs and risks be explained?
- Fair markets
- How can manipulation be made harder? How should non-public information be handled?
- Responsibility
- Who runs and oversees the market? Who handles complaints?
- Clear outcomes
- Which source determines the result? What happens if it is disputed or unclear?
STEP 3 / 4
What do you personally expect?
Your reasons do not determine a probability. One idea may carry more weight for you than several others. Decide for yourself how likely you think the event is by the end of 2027.
The ideas you selected
You have not selected any reasons yet.
0 %
100 %
This is your expectation, not a market price or other users’ views. You can change it at any time.
No estimate confirmed yet.
STEP 4 / 4
An expectation meets a clear set of rules.
A virtual event contract illustrates the difference: while the outcome is open, people have expectations. At the end, the criteria agreed in advance determine the result.
No estimate confirmed yet.
Payout for one virtual unit
In this example, the matching unit pays 100 virtual points and the other pays 0. These points are not currency and have no cash value.
- Payout for one virtual unit
- In this example, the matching unit pays 100 virtual points and the other pays 0. These points are not currency and have no cash value.
How might two sides come together?
Imagine one person takes the yes side and another takes the no side. In a simplified example, they put up 60 and 40 virtual points. They would have to agree how much each side contributes – their opinions alone do not make a trade. At the end, the correct side receives the 100 points in total.
These figures are illustrative teaching examples. Your personal probability does not set a price or trigger any trade.
Try a possible course of events.
These buttons show invented scenarios, not current news. Consider what each would mean for the virtual contract.
A virtual thought experiment, not a real market. Nothing here is submitted, stored or published.
06 / POSSIBILITIES · TAKING THE IDEA FURTHER
What we know together could make a difference.
Knowledge is everywhere: in the stands, at work, in your neighbourhood. Often it stays where it starts. What if we could bring those experiences together – to think further ahead?
Three possible futures. Choose one and take the idea further.
Imagine this
You know the teams, follow injury news and spot when a side is underrated. A forecasting tournament could let you compare your assessments with others over a season.
What could grow from it
Virtual points could offer a playful way to explore who judges developments well over time. This could introduce people who have never considered prediction markets to the idea.
What would need to come together
Clear rules and fair scoring. A single correct prediction can be luck. Confidence should matter too, and sharing reasons could help everyone learn.
Imagine this
A company plans a new service. It sounds good in conversations. But a customer spots a practical obstacle the development team has overlooked.
What could grow from it
Opinion research could be complemented by ongoing assessments: what do people expect, and what changes their minds? New services for research, media and businesses could emerge, earning revenue where they provide real value.
What would need to come together
The right people need a voice, including those outside the existing customer base. What people like, what they expect and what they eventually use are different things.
Imagine this
A customer notices changing habits, a retailer sees a shift in demand, an expert spots a technical development. Each is a clue. Together, they could reveal a pattern.
What could grow from it
Many assessments could become a growing body of data. AI could group similar arguments, highlight contradictions and uncover overlooked topics. Big data would have a tangible purpose: connecting people’s experiences.
What would need to come together
Traceable sources, privacy and attention to the gaps: who takes part, and who is missing? More data does not automatically mean better insight. AI can help organise it; people still need to examine the results.
THINKING AHEAD TOGETHER
Before we make a change: what do we expect from it?
A city is considering a car-free centre. Three people look at the same idea and see different possible effects. These voices are invented examples.
“Perhaps it would be quieter here, with cleaner air.”
“Will customers still reach my shop – or stay away?”
“Will the traffic move onto our streets instead?”
An opinion market could help make these expectations visible before a decision. How would traffic change in the first six months? What would happen to visitor numbers? The period, measures and data sources would need to be clear in advance. After implementation, people could examine which expectations came true.
What we want and what we expect are different things. Both deserve to be heard.
Such an approach could complement civic participation. It would not replace a vote or decisions by elected representatives. Participants do not automatically represent the whole city.
A possibility is not yet a market.
Room within the rules
What can be offered, under which conditions and to whom?
A clear benefit
Why would people join and return? Demand can inspire services; useful services can spark interest.
People who take part
Trading needs a willing counterparty. Tournaments and research services need other forms of participation.
Where do you see the greatest opportunity?
Choose a thought to open a follow-up question here.
A personal prompt, not a poll. Your choice stays in this open page only; it is not collected or published.