Prediction Market Intelligence
What happened – and what it changed.
A source-based reconstruction of markets, research, regulation, and ideas.
AI-curated research feed · not editorially approved
Discovery date, event date, and verification status remain separated.
Entries9
Period2005–2026
Source Clusters4
Backfills5
Event dossier
EVENTS
Global Prediction Markets Forum
Gaming, regulation and prediction markets meet in Lisbon.
SBC Events · Malta Gaming Authority
Source verified
B
Science interview
SCIENCE
LMU on prices and swarm intelligence
Martin Spann classifies markets as information aggregators.
LMU · Martin Spann
Source verified
B
Peer reviewed
SCIENCE
Replication Markets tested
Market prices and surveys are compared with 28 replication results.
Royal Society Open Science
Source verified
A
Research paper
SCIENCE
Polymarket Arbitrage
On-chain analysis of intra-market and combinatorial inconsistencies.
Polymarket · IMDEA · Oxford
Source verified
B
Handbook chapter
SCIENCE
Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting
Markets as an instrument for macro forecasts, model tests and event studies.
Snowberg · Wolfers · Zitzewitz
Source verified
A
Project report
SCIENCE
Fundamentals, Designs, and Applications
STOCCER report documents design, incentives and market making.
KIT · STOCCER
Source verified
A
Peer reviewed
SCIENCE
Sports Forecasting: Markets, Odds and Tipsters
Three Bundesliga seasons compare forecasting methods.
Spann · Skiera
Source verified
A
Media coverage
INDUSTRY
Redmonitor RealPrice
Heise describes P2P matching and price forecasts as a data product.
Redmonitor · Heise
Source verified
B
Field experiment
SCIENCE
STOCCER FIFA World Cup Exchange
Multilingual play-money market examines sports forecasts.
STOCCER · University of Karlsruhe
Source verified
B
Development Lines
One topic. Decades of evidence.
Knowledge paths show when an idea emerged, how it was practically tested, and where later research relativized earlier assumptions.
1500
1900
2004
2006
2009
2012
2025
2026
Development Line 01
Information Aggregation & Efficiency
Vom effizienten Markt zur messbaren Grenze kollektiver Prognosen.
STOCCER World Cup Market
Play-Money-Markt testet Kontrakte, Liquidität und Prognosegenauigkeit.
Markets vs. Betting Odds
Gebühren trennen Genauigkeit und Profitabilität.
Economic Forecasting
Modelltests, Event Studies und Decision Markets.
Polymarket Arbitrage
On-Chain-Daten zeigen kombinatorische Inkonsistenzen.
Replication Markets
Informationswert ja – Ersatz der Replikation nein.
Development Line 02
Sports Forecasting & Gambling
Ähnliche Ergebnisfragen, unterschiedliche Marktrollen.
FIFA World Cup Exchange
Mehrsprachiger Prognosemarkt mit offenem Orderbuch.
Forecast Comparison
Märkte und Wettquoten übertreffen Tippgeber im Datensatz.
Gaming Industry Attention
Plattformen, Sportsbooks und Aufsichten treffen zusammen.
WayBack Principle: Historical new finds are classified at the time of the event; discovery and verification remain visible.
Source Clusters
From documents to context.
Primary sources, studies, and later analyses are linked into dossiers. Contradictions and evidence strengths are preserved.
4 Sources
Source Cluster · 2005–2009
STOCCER & Sports Forecasting
Project start
Linked Evidence
STOCCER World Cup
Linked Evidence
Spann & Skiera
Linked Evidence
Final Report
Linked Evidence
3 Sources
Source Cluster · 2007–2009
Redmonitor RealPrice
Terms
Linked Evidence
Heise Report
Linked Evidence
Experimental Analysis
Linked Evidence
3 Sources
Source Cluster · 2012–2025
Efficiency, Decision Markets & Arbitrage
Economic Forecasting
Linked Evidence
Polymarket Arbitrage
Linked Evidence
Market Efficiency Lab
Linked Evidence
Ongoing
Source Cluster · 2026
Prediction Markets meet Gaming
SBC Forum
Linked Evidence
Report & Statements pending
Linked Evidence