FORECAST OBJECT REGISTRY / EN

Events are not merely
forecast.
They are remembered.

01 / OBJECT REGISTRY

From an open question
to a verified outcome.

3 objects · 3 domains · 1 shared standard

Politics USA Resolved · 5 Nov 2024

Political Forecast Object

13 Keys to the White House

Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? A historical structural model compared with community assessments, market expectations and the realised outcome.

MODEL Harris

COMMUNITY Key by key

RESOLUTION Donald Trump

Resolved Open object

Regulation European Union Tracking · through 31 Dec 2027

Regulatory Forecast Object

EU Event Contract Framework

Will a dedicated European framework for Event Contracts emerge by the end of 2027? Regulatory positions, consultations and product classification documented as an evolving chain of regulatory events.

MODEL Open

COMMUNITY 64% YES

RESOLUTION Not resolved

Being tracked View object

Economy Euro area Research setup

Monetary Forecast Object

ECB: next interest-rate decision

Will the ECB cut the deposit facility rate at its next monetary-policy meeting? Macroeconomic data, central-bank communication and market expectations are documented as separate signals.

MODEL In preparation

COMMUNITY Open

RESOLUTION Not resolved

In preparation View object

02 / FORECAST OBJECT STANDARD

A shared grammar
for different events.

Each Forecast Object follows a consistent structure. This makes it possible to compare the question, methodology, community signal, market data, evidence and realised outcome transparently across topics and time periods.

01 Thesis & scope Unambiguous question, time period, jurisdiction and resolution rule

02 Model Explicit methodology, version and signal

03 Community Non-monetary, time-stamped assessments

04 Market Separate market-based probability

05 Evidence Primary sources, confidence and disputed interpretations

06 Timeline Chronology of all relevant changes

07 Resolution Realised outcome and resolution source

08 Post-Event Review Deviation, calibration and learning

EDITORIAL GOVERNANCE

Facts, assessments and open questions remain visibly separate.

SYSTEMATIC LINKING

Market objects are linked with sources, events, products and lines of development.

COMPLIANCE LANGUAGE