A continuously structured view of regulation, platforms, event futures, market structure and research shaping the global prediction-market ecosystem.
The UK Financial Conduct Authority is engaging with prediction-market operators as Kalshi and Polymarket assess potential UK market entry, adding a concrete market-access dimension to the regulator’s ongoing review of event contracts and binary-option rules.
Kalshi and Polymarket are extending event-contract coverage and promotion into reality television and entertainment, illustrating how prediction markets are broadening beyond politics, sports and macro events into mainstream consumer culture.
UK authorities faced calls to intervene after Polymarket hosted contracts on whether major banks including HSBC and Lloyds would fail. The FCA said it had been speaking with international regulators about prediction markets as part of efforts to protect market integrity.
Perpetuals.com reports that its AI-assisted market-prediction platform doubled its registered user base to 600,000 in 38 days, adding another scale marker in the adjacent crowd-prediction and trading-technology segment.
The UK Financial Conduct Authority is engaging with prediction-market operators as Kalshi and Polymarket assess potential UK market entry, adding a concrete market-access dimension to the regulator’s ongoing review of event contracts and binary-option rules.
Kalshi and Polymarket are extending event-contract coverage and promotion into reality television and entertainment, illustrating how prediction markets are broadening beyond politics, sports and macro events into mainstream consumer culture.
Kalshi broadens its exchange model beyond event contracts with a stock-index perpetual future, reinforcing convergence with traditional derivatives venues.
Research finds that position limits constrained arbitrage and were associated with persistent overpricing and stronger longshot bias.
The UK Financial Conduct Authority is engaging with prediction-market operators as Kalshi and Polymarket assess potential UK market entry, adding a concrete market-access dimension to the regulator’s ongoing review of event contracts and binary-option rules.
Kalshi and Polymarket are extending event-contract coverage and promotion into reality television and entertainment, illustrating how prediction markets are broadening beyond politics, sports and macro events into mainstream consumer culture.
Kalshi broadens its exchange model beyond event contracts with a stock-index perpetual future, reinforcing convergence with traditional derivatives venues.
Research finds that position limits constrained arbitrage and were associated with persistent overpricing and stronger longshot bias.
UK authorities faced calls to intervene after Polymarket hosted contracts on whether major banks including HSBC and Lloyds would fail. The FCA said it had been speaking with international regulators about prediction markets as part of efforts to protect market integrity.
Perpetuals.com reports that its AI-assisted market-prediction platform doubled its registered user base to 600,000 in 38 days, adding another scale marker in the adjacent crowd-prediction and trading-technology segment.
High-frequency order-book evidence suggests large trades move quotes relative to displayed depth, while additional forecast value is less clear.
The platform added voluntary deposit limits, temporary lock-outs and support resources amid continuing conduct and regulatory debate.
European Lotteries urged regulators to classify event contracts by their legal substance and risk rather than branding, warning against regulatory gaps between financial-services and gambling frameworks.
Reported fundraising discussions point to sustained capital concentration around regulated prediction-market infrastructure.
Robinhood said binary earnings contracts tied to company KPIs would begin rolling out through Cboe, extending prediction-style products deeper into public-company fundamentals.
Expansion into stock-related outcomes sharpens questions over the perimeter between commodities and securities regulation.
The appeals court rejected Kalshi’s preliminary-injunction effort against Ohio and Tennessee gambling-law enforcement.
Public announced direct event-contract access plus AI agents using market-implied probabilities alongside portfolio information.
The CFTC highlighted elevated risks where settlement depends on a person saying words, appearing at an event or taking a discrete action.
Genius Sports-owned Legend launched a consumer platform combining live sports data, prediction-market volumes and comparable event-contract pricing across multiple venues.
BMLL adds Kalshi historical prediction-market data to its institutional Level 1–3 data and analytics coverage, targeting quantitative, macro and systematic research workflows.
Phillip Capital announces support for clearing Kalshi event contracts through established institutional trading relationships, extending prediction markets into conventional FCM workflows.
A University of Copenhagen-led SSRN paper evaluates anti-Trump trading strategies across 218 Polymarket contracts, adding empirical evidence to the debate over ideological bias in decentralized prediction markets.
ESMA’s second 2026 Trends, Risks and Vulnerabilities report included prediction markets as an in-depth topic, bringing market-integrity and investor-protection concerns into EU-wide financial-market risk monitoring.
Connecticut issued cease-and-desist orders to nine platforms and nearly 30 subpoenas to gaming service providers and media outlets, escalating the state-versus-federal jurisdiction conflict.
The integration places sportsbook odds and contextual prediction-market content inside a live sports social platform with more than 1.5 million monthly active users.
Provider-reported market data indicates rapid scaling of commodity-linked prediction markets beyond politics and sports.
Robinhood began routing selected football event contracts to Crypto.com’s regulated exchange infrastructure while continuing to route contracts to Kalshi, ForecastEx and Rothera.
Alongside its $29.5 billion estimate for legal NFL wagering, the American Gaming Association argued that sports-event contracts are expanding outside state gaming frameworks.
The deal illustrates prediction-market infrastructure becoming a distributable B2B layer for sports-native platforms.
The expanded relationship adds official data, streaming and integrity services covering roughly 300,000 matches annually, including Bundesliga, Euroleague Basketball and major tennis events.
Clear Street describes prediction markets as a structural market shift after becoming the first FCM to provide institutional access to Kalshi, alongside expansion of its global execution platform.
36 Group writes down Meta Bliss-related values and states its intention to move Blizz Markets operations to Manserio, while retaining Trustplay prediction-market technology and brand assets under licence.
Kalshi Research reported that forecast quality improved with time, depth and participation, adding a large proprietary dataset to the evidence base on prediction-market calibration.
Cantor Fitzgerald begins arranging institutional-size event-contract blocks on Kalshi, with Susquehanna Predictions providing pricing and liquidity.
AGA analysis found rapid growth in digital advertising for sports-related prediction markets and highlighted differences in responsible-gaming messaging compared with regulated sportsbooks.
Germany’s Joint Gambling Authority clarified that wagers on political, social and similar events offered through prediction markets are not eligible for licensing under the German gambling framework.
Perpetuals expands its regulated European trading venue into crypto under MiCA, relevant to the broader convergence of derivatives, digital assets and prediction-oriented trading infrastructure.
Kalshi enters a multi-year agreement to deploy Nasdaq Market Surveillance across event contracts and perpetual futures, adding institutional-grade cross-market abuse detection.
Genius Sports agreed to provide Kalshi with official real-time data across major soccer competitions together with media and integrity services.
The partnership links official data, selected live match streaming, league IP and integrity information-sharing to Polymarket’s CFTC-regulated U.S. sports offering.
Minutes of the April regulatory-perimeter meeting show the FCA formally raised prediction-market products with HM Treasury, reiterating that financial PMPs are currently treated as binary options while considering whether access rules or the perimeter require further clarification.
ANJ ordered French internet service providers to block Polymarket after concluding that the site promoted unauthorized gambling services and that earlier geoblocking could be circumvented.
A partnership with AppliedXL extends event contracts into drug-development probabilities and specialized information markets.
Kalshi Pro adds multi-market workflows, live-event reaction and resting-order management for advanced users.
ESMA warned firms to assess whether event contracts qualify as financial instruments subject to existing EU binary-option product-intervention measures, while noting possible overlap with national gambling law.
36 Group announces live USDC trading for Blizz Markets on Base, moving its prediction-market product from public beta into a real-money implementation.
Tradeweb launches a dedicated Kalshi pricing page for U.S. institutional clients and prepares integration of Kalshi’s American Power Index into its platform.
Authorities from nine European markets committed to cooperation against non-compliant prediction-market platforms.
A federal court transfers Reynolds v. Kalshi and Susquehanna to the Southern District of New York, where similar class actions alleging unlicensed sports wagering had already been consolidated.
Crypto.com’s OG prediction-market experience announced availability in New York, extending its CFTC-regulated sports and global-event offering into a major U.S. market.
After New Mexico sues Kalshi under state gaming law, the CFTC seeks declaratory and injunctive relief asserting exclusive federal authority over event contracts on registered markets.
The proposal addresses gaming and other statutorily enumerated activities and introduces a public-interest review framework.
Yale SOM summarizes research finding that a relatively small group of informed traders drives much of prediction-market price discovery and captures a disproportionate share of profits.
The partnership broadens sports, entertainment and combination event contracts through regulated exchange infrastructure.
Kalshi announced market risk scoring, employment verification for higher-risk markets and enhanced whistleblower tools following recommendations from its independent surveillance process.
FanDuel added sports, entertainment and combination event contracts through Crypto.com’s CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing infrastructure.
The multi-year agreement supplies official content across MLB, NHL, MLS, UFC and other sports and extends participation opportunities to Kalshi market makers and brokers.
Robinhood activated Rothera as an additional CFTC-licensed exchange and clearing venue for prediction-market contracts, broadening its own routing infrastructure.
Galaxy opens OTC access to non-sports Kalshi and Polymarket contracts for hedge funds and family offices and executes a $10 million launch trade with Arca.
Perpetuals says UpsideOnly generated $4.5 billion in cumulative platform volume in its first two weeks and signs an exchange agreement with Datavault AI for tokenized commodities.
Kalshi announced perpetual futures as its first major product line beyond event contracts, positioning the venue as a broader next-generation derivatives exchange.
Wintermute confirms continuous quoting across event contracts on leading venues, bringing institutional market-making infrastructure to a segment it says already exceeds $20 billion in monthly volume.
New contracts tied to auction-house lot prices and realized values extended event-market design into fine art and other traditionally illiquid real-world assets.
UpsideOnly launches as an AI-assisted crowd-prediction platform in which user forecasts inform proprietary trading while user capital is not directly put at risk.
IBKR launched a single interface across three U.S. prediction-market venues for cross-platform price discovery and execution.
Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series F and reported an 800% rise in institutional trading volume over six months, framing institutional adoption as its next growth phase.
The AGA Gaming Industry Outlook reported that 81% of surveyed executives viewed prediction markets as a very significant threat to the regulated gaming industry.
Clear Street and Kalshi announce a partnership spanning clearing, settlement, block trading and high- and low-touch execution, connecting event contracts to institutional derivatives workflows.
ION extends its XTP derivatives-processing platform to 24/7 event-contract workflows, with Wedbush using the system for prediction-market clearing and connectivity.
The CFTC files against Wisconsin after the state brings cases against Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood and Coinbase, further escalating the federal preemption dispute.
The CFTC seeks a declaration of exclusive federal authority over registered event-contract markets after New York pursues cease-and-desist and civil enforcement actions.
The partnership marked Kalshi’s first reported provision of real-time prediction-market data to a financial-research provider with paying subscribers.
The exchange expanded contracts tied to physical markets and positioned event contracts alongside traditional price-discovery and hedging tools.
High Roller Technologies announced a definitive agreement with Crypto.com Derivatives North America to distribute event contracts spanning finance, sports and entertainment.
Research using $67 billion of Polymarket trading volume finds the top 1% of profitable users capture 76.5% of gains and links success to liquidity provision through limit orders.
Perpetuals positions its MTF as a regulated alternative for direct client execution in crypto derivatives, relevant to the broader event/derivatives platform convergence.
The FCA’s March perimeter report states that non-financial prediction-market products fall under the Gambling Commission, while financial and certain climate-linked PMPs fall within the FCA perimeter and are currently viewed as binary options subject to the permanent retail-sales ban.
Sportradar extended its sports-data and technology footprint into casino content and iGaming services, illustrating the broader convergence of betting, data and gaming software ecosystems.
Meta Bliss launches Blizz Markets on Base with proprietary smart contracts, combining prediction markets, token launches and an existing crypto-casino/sports-betting ecosystem.
A Berkeley research team builds tick-level order-flow and wallet datasets to test favorite-longshot bias and microstructural inefficiencies across modern prediction markets.
The Commission sought public comment on core principles, prohibited event categories and wider treatment of event contracts.
The Division of Market Oversight reminded designated contract markets of Core Principle 3, Part 38 and product-submission obligations, with particular attention to sports-related event contracts.
The French gambling authority warned that prediction-market sites are not authorized in France and highlighted addiction, integrity and consumer-protection risks.
The CFTC Enforcement Division highlights two cases involving misuse of nonpublic information and fraud on Kalshi, formalizing enforcement expectations for event-contract markets.
An arXiv study covering 292 million trades across 327,000 Kalshi and Polymarket contracts finds calibration varies systematically by domain, horizon and trade size.
In a Ninth Circuit filing, the CFTC reaffirmed its position that federally regulated event-contract markets fall within its exclusive commodity-derivatives jurisdiction.
CME says its event-contract offering reached 100 million contracts traded within roughly eight weeks of launch, signaling rapid retail adoption across financial, cultural and sports events.
Kalshi used the event to signal a major step-up in consumer adoption, saying pre-game volume alone was almost double its entire 2023 trading volume.
DraftKings added player-specific NFL and NBA event contracts through Crypto.com’s regulated derivatives infrastructure and signaled future expansion into additional categories including politics.
Kalshi announced an independent surveillance committee, partnerships with Solidus Labs and Wharton forensic-analytics expertise, and a new enforcement lead, with quarterly public reporting planned.
The Commission formally withdrew the prior event-contract rule proposal and a 2025 sports-contract advisory, clearing the way for a new prediction-market rulemaking path.
The Commission stated that commercial prediction-market products offered in Great Britain would not simply be able to classify themselves as non-gambling products and warned unlicensed operators against targeting British consumers.
Perpetuals introduces barrier futures on its regulated European venue, widening the set of simplified event-like derivatives adjacent to prediction markets.
OG launched with CFTC-regulated sports contracts plus finance, politics, culture and entertainment markets.
The CFTC grants Xchange Alpha designated contract market status, expanding the regulated U.S. exchange universe at a time of rapid innovation in event and retail derivatives.
Research commissioned by the American Gaming Association found widespread confusion over whether state gaming regulators protect users of sports event contracts and reported weaker visibility of responsible-gaming tools.
ForecastEx added specialist forecasting and probability expertise to governance of its CFTC-registered venue.
The partnership targets operators, fintechs and trading brokers with turnkey federally regulated event-contract infrastructure.
Robinhood updated that its joint venture had closed the acquisition of the CFTC-licensed MIAXdx exchange and clearinghouse, establishing infrastructure later used for Rothera.
The two industry associations urged federal lawmakers to address prediction-market sports contracts in crypto-market-structure legislation, citing state-law, tribal-sovereignty and consumer-protection concerns.
CFTC records show ForecastEx certifications spanning prediction-market volume, crypto, politics, climate, macro and other event categories.
Gemini expands its CFTC-regulated prediction marketplace into college football and NFL event contracts, adding another crypto-native distributor to the sports-event market.
Researchers compare Kalshi-implied macro forecasts with surveys and traditional market signals and find prediction markets provide a high-frequency, distribution-rich measure of expectations.